I think also particularly in the early years of hosting that there were off-pitch factors that led to host nations' performances. Whether it be Mussolini's handpicking of refs for the 1934 World Cup, Argentina's antics in their home tournament in 78 or even England sending Portugal to Merseyside for a World Cup Semi Final (Vs England) in Wembley. A lot of the early modern world cups are marred by controversy and scandal.
That’s so true, thanks for commenting! FIFA have never been known for their integrity in the game have they. I wonder if those are the types of ‘host benefit’ that build into what we’re seeing here in my figure.
Solid post! The trend is already set to continue for at least 1/3 hosts as Canada didn’t even manage a point in Qatar last time around and are through to the knockout stage this time!
Great to see! I think both the US and Mexico will continue to perform well, too. Maybe I’ll have to post a follow-up to this once the tournament is finished!
Great read. I wonder whether legacy should be the bigger measure here. A host nation overperforming is exciting, but the real test is whether the tournament leaves the game stronger afterwards; better infrastructure, deeper fan engagement, and a national team set up to keep improving.
That is a great idea. I wonder if FIFA WC hosts are required to put as much planning into the legacy as the IOC demands for the Olympics. The London games in 2012 had a huge impact on the country and sport legacy. That would be interesting to capture the 10 years or so post-hosting for recent World Cup tournaments!
I don’t expect as much of an impact post-WC since all the facilities already existed. However, soccer in general has gotten a boost after each US-hosted World Cup just because there is increased media coverage and thus more interest generally in the sports. It’s also easier now to catch highlights via streaming platforms - I remember when I first arrived in the US in the early 1980s, the only option was Telemundo for watching *any* soccer. Now there are Premier League mornings on Peacock and US city Fan Fests, UEFA Champions League on Paramount Plus, Bundesliga on ESPN, etc. Much easier to be a fan in the US, at least.
That’s true, I was always shocked by how expensive sports are in the U.S.! I can’t imagine how much parents spend a year on each child, especially if they want to play multiple sports - it’s professionalized at such a young age which is a shame… pretty much all of the youth sport literature agrees on that :/
That’s true! In my last couple of years in the U.S. I had FUBO which let me watch a lot of football and basketball best bang for my buck!
It would be interesting to see what happens at the grassroots level - this would be a prime time for USA soccer to invest, capture the imagination and hype after this tournament to build for the future on the back of it!
The problem in the US is that youth soccer leagues are mostly “pay to play” - rec league is for the casual player though it can get competitive and then there are various flavors of select, premier, elite, etc. clubs that are all pricey. Some do have scholarships but not for every kid. I found it interesting listening to Thierry Henry’s commentary on FOX about the street football culture on the outskirts of Paris - the US doesn’t really have that. Even the US star Christian Pulisic went to Europe to up level his skills…
That is some impressive knowledge/recall! I hope you enjoyed the read and data viz despite being the human World Cup wizard - I think you have your special subject for mastermind!
I think also particularly in the early years of hosting that there were off-pitch factors that led to host nations' performances. Whether it be Mussolini's handpicking of refs for the 1934 World Cup, Argentina's antics in their home tournament in 78 or even England sending Portugal to Merseyside for a World Cup Semi Final (Vs England) in Wembley. A lot of the early modern world cups are marred by controversy and scandal.
That’s so true, thanks for commenting! FIFA have never been known for their integrity in the game have they. I wonder if those are the types of ‘host benefit’ that build into what we’re seeing here in my figure.
Solid post! The trend is already set to continue for at least 1/3 hosts as Canada didn’t even manage a point in Qatar last time around and are through to the knockout stage this time!
Great to see! I think both the US and Mexico will continue to perform well, too. Maybe I’ll have to post a follow-up to this once the tournament is finished!
Glad you liked the post!
Great read. I wonder whether legacy should be the bigger measure here. A host nation overperforming is exciting, but the real test is whether the tournament leaves the game stronger afterwards; better infrastructure, deeper fan engagement, and a national team set up to keep improving.
That is a great idea. I wonder if FIFA WC hosts are required to put as much planning into the legacy as the IOC demands for the Olympics. The London games in 2012 had a huge impact on the country and sport legacy. That would be interesting to capture the 10 years or so post-hosting for recent World Cup tournaments!
I don’t expect as much of an impact post-WC since all the facilities already existed. However, soccer in general has gotten a boost after each US-hosted World Cup just because there is increased media coverage and thus more interest generally in the sports. It’s also easier now to catch highlights via streaming platforms - I remember when I first arrived in the US in the early 1980s, the only option was Telemundo for watching *any* soccer. Now there are Premier League mornings on Peacock and US city Fan Fests, UEFA Champions League on Paramount Plus, Bundesliga on ESPN, etc. Much easier to be a fan in the US, at least.
That’s true, I was always shocked by how expensive sports are in the U.S.! I can’t imagine how much parents spend a year on each child, especially if they want to play multiple sports - it’s professionalized at such a young age which is a shame… pretty much all of the youth sport literature agrees on that :/
That’s true! In my last couple of years in the U.S. I had FUBO which let me watch a lot of football and basketball best bang for my buck!
It would be interesting to see what happens at the grassroots level - this would be a prime time for USA soccer to invest, capture the imagination and hype after this tournament to build for the future on the back of it!
The problem in the US is that youth soccer leagues are mostly “pay to play” - rec league is for the casual player though it can get competitive and then there are various flavors of select, premier, elite, etc. clubs that are all pricey. Some do have scholarships but not for every kid. I found it interesting listening to Thierry Henry’s commentary on FOX about the street football culture on the outskirts of Paris - the US doesn’t really have that. Even the US star Christian Pulisic went to Europe to up level his skills…
Even before I read this I knew it did. This is all off the top of my head.
Mexico’s best results came when it hosted in 1970 and 1986
South Korea semis in 2002
France had a long rough patch then won when it hosted in 1998
Germany’s recent golden generation began with the 2006 run to the semis it hosted.
USA in 94
Sweden makes final in 58
Uruguay wins in 30
West Germany wins in 74
Argentina wins in 78
England wins in 66
Italy wins in 34, makes semis in 90
Brazil made final in 50; semis in 2014
Russia made quarters in 2018
That is some impressive knowledge/recall! I hope you enjoyed the read and data viz despite being the human World Cup wizard - I think you have your special subject for mastermind!
I did enjoy it. Good stuff.
I do like how the stats are related to the average finish.
🫱🏻🫲🏼
Thanks for reading! How far do you think the hosts will go?🤔
U.S. watched Miracle before the tournament so anything can happen! 🤣
I say at least round of 16 for U.S. and Mexico…still undecided on Canada lowkey.
It looks like they did!😂
It will depend on how the groups play out, but I think you’re right around the mark with those predictions!👀